The COVID algorithm performed well to predict the risk of severe complications of COVID-19 in the first and second waves of COVID-19 infections in the Netherlands, the team from VU University Medical Center Amsterdam (VUmc) wrote in the peer-reviewed British Medical Journal.
The algorithm was developed from a training data set comprising 70 percent of the patients and validated in the remaining 30 percent.
Potential predictor variables included age, sex, chronic co-morbidity score based on risk factors for COVID-19 complications, obesity, neighborhood deprivation score, first or second COVID-19 wave, and confirmation test.
The team collected information from a database of COVID-19 diagnoses and co-morbidities in the country.
Some 264 general practitioner practices reported 6,074 COVID-19 cases between April 10, 2020, and January 21, 2021.
About 291 patients had severe complications; 181 of these were hospitalized, while 59 were treated in a nursing home, and 51 died.
However, they added the caveat that “the regression estimates can and need to be adjusted for future predictions”.